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Posts Tagged ‘Conservatives’

Yorkshire and the Midlands have traditionally been where British elections are won and lost. Yorkshire is perhaps the most demographically and geographically diverse region in England and its distribution of seats goes from the huge sprawling cities of Leeds and Bradford to the small villages that make up a massive constituency such as Haltonprice and Howdon. Whichever party performs best in Yorkshire will probably have the most seats in the new House of Commons on Friday morning. Here are my seven seats to watch.

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The first thing to say about this particular region is that it’s an entirely LibDem free zone. That won’t be unusual after Thursday but today it’s noticeable. If UKIP has a very good night it may win one seat and the party’s voters may determine the balance between Labour and the Conservatives in a number of seats. Still, this is the purest Labour-Conservative contest in the country.

These are my seven seats to watch in the East Midlands:

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The West Midlands is a region packed with Lab-Con marginals and it is no great surprise that the party leaders have already spent a great deal of time in this region. In 2010 the Conservatives did better in the West Midlands than they did in the UK as a whole. Because of this most of these marginals are defended by Conservatives and if Labour has any hope not only of winning a majority, but even of becoming the largest party, they will have to do well in this region. As for the Lib Dems, this is a particularly barren region for them. They only hold two seats and might lost both of them. Here are my seven seats to watch. (more…)

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In the closest General Election campaign in living memory, Scotland moves from being a traditional backwater of British politics looks set to be the most uncertain battlefield of all. Before moving on to the individual seats to look at it is important to underline how uncertain the final result in Scotland is likely to be. In its latest Nowcast, YouGov has fully three fifths of Scotland’s seats in the too close to call category. So without too much further adieu these are my seven seats to watch although please note that none of them are in Glasgow because the SNP will rule them all.

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On the face of it the referendum on Scottish independence should be one of the least terrifying prospects in modern British politics. Granted there are huge risks for those of us who believe in continued political union between the four historic nations, an in-out referendum would lead to the end of the UK or the SNP. But at the moment the signs point to a rejection of independence.   Firstly all the polling data shows a clear majority in favour of the status quo.  Furthermore people are usually inherently conservative when it comes to referenda, as it gets closer to polling day more people adhere to Belloc’s aphorism of clinging to nurse for fear of something worse – as seen in rejections of an Australian republic, Spain’s membership of NATO and AV in British general elections. This sense is only heightened by the economic wastelands that are other small Northwest European nations, Iceland and Ireland, and the fear of what RBS could have done to Scottish balance sheets. Despite these manifest reasons for optimism the current political landscape has the seed of the union’s destruction and all of these have complacency at their roots.

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