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Posts Tagged ‘Scottish Parliament’

You’ve read the polls. You disbelieved them. You’ve read more polls. You’ve disbelieved them too. But the devil doesn’t need to knock thrice, you know that the bogeyman is coming, that the SNP will most likely be the third largest party in the next parliament.

It’s worth restating that short of Nicola Sturgeon being caught in bed with a live or dead Alex Salmond that there is nothing to stop something that as recently as February seemed impossible. Yes it seems incredible that the Scottish National Party will win the 55 seats that is projected by the YouGov Nowcast but even if Labour somehow clings on to double the number of seats that the pollster thinks may be saved from the nationalist surge by Unionist tactical voter that would still put the SNP on 37. And if you could find someone who would bet on the Liberal Democrats getting more than 36 seats in the next parliament then I have a used car I would like to sell them, and I don’t even drive.

So short of a historic botch on the Sturgeon’s part or a miraculous recovery for Clegg the SNP will assume our feathered friends’ role as third wheel of the parliamentary bicycle. It’s the aspect of the SNP surge that has been least observed – just what exactly happens the day after tomorrow.

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Much has been written about the backlash to David Cameron’s remarkably ill-advised intervention in the simmering debate about the precise nature of the referendum on Scottish Independence. Many have like Simon commented on the strange complacency that is present in the Unionist camp.  What has been less noticed is the remarkable amount of conservatism  in the debate. In what is a fundamentally a debate about constitutional reform, there was little consideration about ways that the Union could be renewed through constitutional reform. This could be best seen in the demented denunciation of “Devo Max” by Unionists due to the belief that its just a ruse adopted by an Alex Salmond in need of a consolation prize should the Scots (as is probable) reject independence.

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